This is the question I was asked in a recent interview for a new podcast on climate change solutions. My first instinct was to say "Yes, absolutely," but I hesitated. Of course, this statement has the potential be true, and in other parts of the world it is true. But if I said yes, it wouldn’t reflect the reality for US supermarkets today. If anything, environmental and business goals are often considered opposing, even clashing forces that can’t be aligned. But could there be another way? Could environmental and business goals work in harmony?
On the environmental side, there is no question that natural refrigerants, including Carbon Dioxide, Ammonia, and Propane, represent one of the most impactful solutions to climate change. Hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants (HFCs) are the fastest growing greenhouse gases (GHG) globally, with thousands of times more global warming potential (GWP), or heat-trapping power, than carbon dioxide. Scientists have warned that left unchecked, HFC emissions could be responsible for up to 0.5°C of warming before the end of the century.
In terms of whether natural refrigerants are good for a supermarket’s bottom line, I thought about what an ideal world would look like. For natural refrigerant technologies to be economically sustainable, they’d need to be available at roughly the same upfront costs as their HFC counterparts. They’d need to demonstrate similar or better operational costs over the life of the equipment, including service, maintenance, and energy usage. Ultimately, natural refrigerants need to be a good return on investment to have a net positive impact on the business bottom line.
Why would anyone pay more upfront for a product that could cost more over its lifecycle, may not perform to the same standard, and has fewer options in terms of serviceability? Is this the worst sales pitch for natural refrigerants? Probably. But I can tell you that these questions represent the very real hurdles that prevent natural refrigerants from being a supermarket’s first choice. With US adoption rates below 1%, natural refrigerants are stuck in a continuous negative feedback loop of low adoption. Low demand keeps upfront costs high, preventing technology innovation, reliable performance data, and adequate workforce training, which in turn keeps demand low. Not to mention the biggest hurdle of all: what to do about the vast number of existing stores which represent 99% of the environmental problem?
Unfortunately, some well-intentioned policymakers and environmental organizations make the problem worse. They attempt to solve the issue by placing the burden entirely on supermarkets. We have seen campaigns that call on supermarkets to make a seemingly simple choice but disregard complex market forces that keep the negative cycle of adoption firmly in place. The idea that supermarkets could magically reverse the cycle by simply choosing lower GWP refrigerants ignores the deeper issues. This misplaced pressure creates a stand-off between business and environmental goals, halting any forward progress.
To make meaningful change, we need real solutions and actions that address the root causes of the barriers to natural refrigerant adoption. First costs can be offset through comprehensive incentive programs and funding investments designed to spur demand. Credible data on performance and total lifecycle costs can drive innovation, optimized design, and confidence in return on investment data. Workforce training can improve system performance and reduce costs, which in turn further increases confidence and demand. The key to these solutions is collective action by a diverse community of stakeholders.
Policymakers and environmental organizations can play a critical role in supporting real change. They are uniquely positioned to leverage their influence to increase awareness and help drive critical resources, including incentive programs to jump-start demand, funding for data and research on advanced technologies, calling attention to codes and standards barriers, and investment in workforce development. Furthermore, effective policies have the potential to accelerate the transition by creating market certainty and alignment with related goals, such as energy efficiency and community resiliency.
NASRC was founded to bring stakeholders together to take collective action and overcome the barriers associated with natural refrigerants. Over the last five years, we have built a powerful network of members and partners to drive solutions on the data, resources, and support supermarkets need to feasibly adopt natural refrigerants. Our vision is to create a sustainable future for supermarket refrigeration. To unlock the tremendous environmental benefits of natural refrigerants, they need to first be considered a feasible business choice for supermarkets. Aligning environmental and business goals is the definition of our success, and we need all hands on deck to make it happen.
After some thought, I responded to the interviewer's question "Not yet, but we have a plan,” then I added “and most importantly, we have the right people to make it happen.” I hung up the phone and got back to work, feeling optimistic about the future we’re building with our network.
